Monday, December 26, 2011

Bowl Predictions: Pre-New Year's Day

The next round of picks:

Independence Bowl: Missouri vs. North Carolina
Winne: Missouri

Little Caesars Bowl: Purdue vs. Western Michigan
Winner: Purdue

Belk Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Louisville
Winner: North Carolina State

Military Bowl: Toledo vs. Air Force
Winner: Toledo

Holiday Bowl: Cal vs. Texas
Winner: Texas

Champs Sports Bowl: Florida St vs. Notre Dame
Winner Florida: State

Alamo Bowl: Baylor vs. Washington
Winner: Baylor

Armed Forces Bowl: BYU vs. Tulsa
Winner: Tulsa

Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Iowa State
Winner: Rutgers

Music City Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest
Winner: Mississippi State

Insight Bowl: Iowa vs. Oklahoma
Winner: Oklahoma

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Texas A&M vs.Northwestern
Winner: Texas A&M

Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Winner: Georgia Tech

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Illinois vs. UCLA
Winner: Illinois

Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Winner: Vanderbilt

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Auburn vs. Virginia
Winner: Auburn

Friday, December 16, 2011

Bowl Predictions Pre-Christmas Bowls

Last year I rather disastrously picked against the spread. Also, there was the fact that I ended up someplace where I couldn't blog to post predictions for a lot of games. So this year I hope to alleviate both those things. I'm not picking against the spread. It's more challenging, but it also is friggin impossible*. I'll also make sure to have all my prediction posts written and scheduled to go up in case a similar incident happens**. So, here are my picks for the pre-Christmas bowls:

New Mexico Bowl: Temple vs. Wyoming
Winner: Temple

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs. Utah State
Winner: Utah State

New Orleans Bowl: San Diego State vs. UL Lafayette
Winner: San Diego State

Beef O' Brady's Bowl: Florida International vs. Marshall
Winner: Marshall

Poinsettia Bowl: TCU vs. Louisiana Tech
Winner: TCU

Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Arizona State
Winner: Boise State

Hawaii Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Nevada
Winner: Southern Miss

-Michael

*It's also the reason I have to hide from my bookie
**I don't expect it to

Sunday, December 4, 2011

BCS Rambles

I'm not one who is terribly opposed to the LSU vs. Alabama rematch. It's impossible for anyone to know for certain whether Alabama is better that Oklahoma State or Stanford. I personally think they are. The resume is probably actually better for Oklahoma State, but the so-called 'eye test' makes me think Alabama is better.

I don't really have that much sympathy for Oklahoma State. Yes, it is unfortunate that this system isn't going to give the opportunity to disprove my theory about them vs. Alabama. However, they had an opportunity, in this system, to derive us of the usual controversy. All they had to do was beat Iowa State* and none of this would be an issue.

What I will concede to the Oklahoma State case is they were punished for losing later than Alabama. It's really simple with the way the polls work: lose early. Oklahoma State lost after Alabama, which allowed reactionary pollsters to jump them ahead of the Cowboys and that just doesn't change. I don't know exactly how to describe that dichotomy. Once a team is at a place in the polls they just don't get jumped unless they lose regardless of outside factors. It's using the rankings to justify the rankings; it has little to do with on the field performance or 'body of work'.

I'm definitely in favor of a playoff system. I have come to the conclusion that it is unlikely to be created anytime soon. I don't know why the powers-at-be are so opposed to its creation, but they are. I believe that it will take one of the smaller schools (i.e. Boise St.) finally making it into that game and possibly winning for there to be any movement towards change. I believe once the big conferences see their big financial pie being cut into by the smaller ones they'll want a change.

If the BCS is going to be used to determine who is going to be the National Champion for the foreseeable future, I'd like for it's influence on the Rose, Fiesta, Sugar and Orange bowl removed. Those bowls' committees ought to be able to determine the teams they want to play without having to follow the BCS rules. I think the match-ups this year would be improved. Here's how what I think would be the differences.

BCS

Rose: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford

Sugar: Virginia Tech vs. Michigan

Orange: Clemson vs. West Virginia

Without BCS

Rose: Same

Fiesta: Same

Sugar: Arkansas vs. Michigan

Orange: Kansas State vs. Clemson


As it is I'm not particularly excited about watching the Sugar or Orange bowl, but I would be if those were the match-ups. I know it would hurt the Boise State's and Utah's of the world, but if they were really deserving of a bid they would get an invite to a big game without the BCS mandate. It also means the Big East won't be reward for mediocrity and a highly ranked team that is third in its conference is forced aside.

I think it is pretty clear that the system to decide the champion in college football's Division 1 "FBS" is broken. I actually think the decision to change the names for the two subdivisions of Division 1 from 1-a and 1-aa to FBS and FCS is pretty funny. It basically the NCAA saying Division 1 with a legitimate champion and Division with who the fuck knows. I really have no understanding why there hasn't been a playoff instituted in what was Division 1-a. It would be such a huge money maker; just look at how huge the contract for the Basketball tournament is. On top of that the bowl system could still exist as the NIT and CIT still can exist in Basketball. The Bowls may be a big money generator in themselves, but I think a playoff would make that figure seem tiny if they gave it a chance.

I do think that there will be an evolution to the heavily suggested Plus-1 model eventually. I welcome that change. It's not what I think is a perfect playoff would look like, but it's a start. More importantly, once they start with four teams, I guarantee that it will expand. Things like that just can't help themselves. Playoffs get bigger; just look at NCAA Basketball Tournament or what the MLB did this offseason. It would expand to eight teams, then twelve and down the line to sixteen.

People who are opposed to a playoff system often will say that a playoff doesn't get rid of controversy. That a playoff will have a controversy about 16 vs. 17 and such. That's true, but a playoff would push that where it's non-consequential for the National Championship. Look at the Basketball Tournament. There's controversy about bubble teams that Sunday night, but by noon on Thursday no one gives a damn anymore.

I don't think the scenario that we saw with the BCS this season is all that unusual. It was unique, but it seems to be just a variation on the discussion that goes on after most seasons. Teams get excluded from a chance at the Crystal Ball unfairly. The unfairness of the system is a problem that predates the BCS, but it is made very clear by the nature of the BCS.

My final thought on this issue as it pertains to this year is that LSU should win the A.P. National Championship unless they are absolutely embarrassed by Alabama in the National Championship game. I think Alabama has a very good chance at winning the game, but LSU did what they needed to do in the regular season and beat Alabama away from home. They don't deserve to be punished by this rematch. Also a split National Championship is a nice jab at the flawed nature of the BCS.

Thanks for reading and please comment

-Michael

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Browns' Monday- Predictions Edition

Here is how I think the Browns will do this season

vs. Cincinnati W
@ Indianapolis L
vs. Miami W
vs. Tennessee W
@Oakland W
vs. Seattle W
@ San Francisco L
@ Houston L
vs. St. Louis L
vs. Jacksonville W
@ Cincinnati W
vs. Baltimore L
@Pittsburgh L
@ Arizona W
@ Baltimore L
vs. Pittsburgh L

Record: 8-8

I'm not going to do much of a write up, but here are some of the questions I hope this season will answer:

Is Peyton Hillis a one-year wonder?

Receivers? Are there any receivers on this team?

Is defensive personnel good enough? or was it too specialized by Mangini for the 3-4 to have any hope of being decent this year?

Will Colt McCoy continue to impress?

And finally

Will the lack of major offseason moves by the front office prove to be wise?

Thanks for reading

-Michael



Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Buckeye Sunday- I Know It's Actually Wednesday Edition

Ohio State 42
Akron 0

Important Stats

Joe Bauserman: 12-16, 163 yards, 3 TDs, 1 Rushing TD

Braxton Miller: 8-12, 130 yard, TD

Jake Stoneburner: 4 receptions, 3 TDs

The season opener against Akron went as one might expect. Akron is a very poor college football team and Ohio State was able to dominate them. Given the way this game went, it's pretty surprising the scoreline wasn't worse.

I must confess that I ended up napping through most of the Forth Quarter*. So, I didn't get to see as much of Braxton Miller as I would've liked to. I thought he looked good in what I saw, after his first drive. I do know that Bauserman was very impressive and I think he deserves the starting job. There shouldn't be any splitting of the duty once the Buckeye's stop playing MAC teams. Miller can get a package or two, but it should be Bauserman's job.

Another area of question for Ohio State heading into this game was the defense. Many starters were lost after last season. It's always nice to shutout another FBS school, but Akron was largely hapless on Offense.

It's hard to get a good read on this team yet. Akron was a bad team. Ohio State should dominate that team. It's just hard to gain any relative perspective from this game. Toledo will be a better test to judge this team by, especially defensively.

The Toledo Rockets have moved away from their Air Raid style offense and now show a much more balanced attack under their Head Coach, former Ohio State Assistant Tim Beckman. They were able to drop 58 points on New Hampshire last week and clearly much more of a threat offensively than Akron. They also gave up 22 points against that team, which shows that they're lacking defensively.

Prediction:

Ohio State 55
Toledo 17

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It was a pretty typical week one around College Football with the exception of the weather. Very few upsets, a few scares and a lot of massive blowouts.

The big news this week is that Texas A&M have been invited to join by the SEC. That is pending a lawsuit filed by Baylor to stop the move. That is just desperation by Baylor, because A&M leaving will collapse the house of cards that the Big 12 became once Nebraska and Colorado left. Baylor is desperate because they would be invited to make a move to the Pac 12 with Texas and Texas Tech and could be left without a home. If I were Baylor, I would be calling the Big East, because if they're willing to take TCU they'd probably be willing to take Baylor.

I suspect the temporary break to the wave of conference expansion has ended with this move. The conference landscape could be dramatically changed at this time next year. If the Big 12 collapses, which looks very likely, there will only 5 BCS conferences. There could only be 4, if the ACC And Big East are successfully pillaged and are forced to merge.

I just find this all quite interesting. I don't know if in the end the so-called "super conferences" will be good or bad for the game, but the politics and speculation that it's taking to get there has been entertaining. Perhaps the bit I'm most curious about is the SEC. The addition of Texas A&M is an indication of their willingness to expand and they'll need at least another team to balance their division. I think Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia are all potential editions. There just has been no indication or inclination on which way these schools and where the SEC wants to go.

So here I my guesses as to what the "super conference" additions will be:

Big 10

Missouri
Pitt
Rutgers
Syracuse

SEC

Texas A&M
Florida State
Georgia Tech
West Virginia

PAC 12

Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St

I think at that point the ACC and Big East would merge to keeping their 16 best teams. Then I think the Mountain West will pick up the remnants of the Big 12 and in theory could get BCS status.

Thanks for reading

-Michael
*I stayed up super late the night before, because the U.S. Men's National Team had a friendly that didn't end until well after 1 am and the puppies were buttholes the next morning.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

College Football Predictions

Today is the first day of the College Football season. This should be an interesting season. Off the field issues are rampant across the board and NCAA penalties could pose an challenge the BCS has yet to see; a top ranked team that isn't eligible to play for a championship. Conference realignment seems imminent, which could create interesting conference battles.

Today, I'll be posting my predictions for the upcoming season. I'll start with how I think my favorite Ohio State Buckeyes will fare this year following a difficult off-season. I believe Ohio State is still the best team in the Big 10. It's not like there are lots of slouches on this team behind the suspended players. I think Ohio State will be able to win its division and play in the Big 10 title game, if the team is bowl eligible. I personally think its highly unlikely to see a bowl ban. No matter how much ESPN makes it sound terrible, what Ohio State's actually been accused of isn't severe enough to warrant that penalty unless the NCAA breaks precedent.

There is a QB controversy in Columbus. I believe Bauserman deserves to start the season at the #1 slot. People seem to think Miller would be able to fill Pryor's shoes, but I don't think he could live up to expectations if he was thrown into the fire. I think Bauserman will be able to lead this team well, especially if there is the development of a dependable running game.

Here's how I see the regular season going for Ohio State:

Ohio State

vs. Akron W
vs. Toledo W
@ Miami (FL) W
vs. Colorado W
vs. Michigan State W
@Nebraska L
@Illinois W
vs. Wisconsin W
vs. Indiana W
@ Purdue W
vs. Penn State W
@Michigan W

That's 11-1 and a birth in the Big Ten title game.

Opening game score prediction

Ohio State 59
Akron 10


Here's how I see the BCS conferences shaking out

ACC

Championship Game: Virginia Tech vs. Florida St.

Champion: Virginia Tech

I'm not really sold on Florida State. However, I don't think there's enough competition in the ACC particularly in their division to stop them from making a strong run into the title game, but I think Virginia Tech is a better team and even has a shot at running the table and going to the BCS Title Game

Disappointing Team: Miami (FL)

For Obvious reasons.

Big East

Champion: West Virginia

Basically because I pick them every year.

Disappointing Team: They're all disappointing

Just waiting for TCU.

Big 10

Championship Game: Nebraska vs. Ohio State*

Champion: Ohio State*

I think the Buckeyes will be able to win a second match-up with the Cornhuskers in the championship game. It'll be a neutral field that'll likely be closer to an Ohio State home game and by them hopefully the issues with Ohio State will have been sorted out.

Disappointing Team: Michigan State

The Spartans got a very friendly schedule last year to gain a share of the Big 10 title. Their schedule isn't friendly this year and their record will reflect that.

Big 12

Champion: Oklahoma

I don't think Oklahoma is deserving of their preseason #1 ranking, but I do think they're the class of the conference. Plus they don't have to worry about a let down in the Big 12 championship game any more.

Disappointing Team: Texas A & M

This is another team, like Florida State, that I don't quite believe in. Plus with their imminent conference move, it is likely to be a distraction filled campaign.

Pac 12

Championship Game: Oregon vs. Arizona

Champion: Oregon

I think USC will win the South Division, but they aren't eligible to play in the game. Oregon will be a very strong team and I think they'll be able to run their Pac 12 schedule.

Disappointing Team: Washington

They finished the year strong last season, but I think this season they will take a step back. They'll win the Apple Cup, so take solace in that.

SEC

Championship Game: South Carolina vs. Alabama

Champion: South Carolina

This year I think is South Carolina's best hope for an SEC title. Alabama, Auburn, and LSU all have concerns and the East Division looks pretty weak. I'm pretty sure this will season will break the SEC's iron grip on a BCS title game slot. I think the their won't be anyone dominate enough to keep the overall recorded needed for that birth.

Disappointing Team: Georgia

I don't see them having that great of a season. I think their name got them the preseason ranking and they'll start sliding after a week one defeat.


Highest rated non AQ school: Boise State

Here are my predictions for BCS match-ups

Rose: Ohio State* vs. Stanford

Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Boise State

Orange: Alabama vs. West Virginia

Sugar: South Carolina vs. Wisconsin

National Championship: Oregon vs. Virginia Tech



National Champion: Oregon

Oregon showed last year that they are legitimate Title contenders. They'll have tough test at Stanford, but I think they'll win that game and the rest of them. I'm not sure how they got jumped by Oklahoma and Alabama in the preseason pull, but I think it'll provide them with some edge. Oregon does, however, have an NCAA investigation hanging over their head, which could mess up their season. Given the NCAA's slow going nature, I still think they'll be the ones who lift the trophy at the end of the season even if it gets taken away from them in the future.


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I'm not going to spend much more than a few sentences on the individual awards. My prediction is that Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina) will win the Heisman trophy this year. That's all. I'll start doing Pasta's Player of the Year rankings after week 6.

The one prediction I will make with certainty is that all of these will be wrong.

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael
*If eligible for postseason play.

Sunday, August 28, 2011

MLS Playoffs

MLS since its inception has implemented rules to try to 'Americanize" soccer. During the early years, MLS used a descending clock rather than the traditional ascending one. MLS regular season games used to go to penalties*, but they did away with that. Then they just had a golden goal period after regulation to determine a winner, but that was done away with as well. Draws may be irrationally loathed by an Americans who are unfamiliar with Soccer and used to American Football and Basketball, but they are an important part of soccer and MLS realized that in 2004. Over the years MLS has also made its rules more lax in regards to roster slots for Foreign Internationals.

MLS has moved away from trying to make the game more palatable for the vaunted, largely mythical "American" sports audience and it has improved the quality of the league incredibly. If one could somehow put any MLS team from 1996 onto a pitch with any of today's teams, a 2011 MLS team would do better than what the Sounders did to my beloved Crew yesterday. However there is still something that rather bothers me about MLS. It's that there are playoffs.

Virtually every American sports league has a regular season that is used to determine the positioning for the teams that qualify for the post season. Playoffs by nature always have the risk of being inequitable. In one off scenarios, strange things happen and the better team doesn't advance. I feel that it is particularly unfair to have the league champion in MLS determined by playoffs rather than regular season results.

MLS has the most fair regular season in all of American sports. It is, as in Europe, a complete round-robin in which every team plays every other team at home and away. At the end of the MLS season there is little doubt that the team at the top of the overall table has had the best season. Having a post-season to determine which team gets MLS Cup is unfair to the team that showed itself to be the best in the grueling 6-month schedule.

If the playoffs were to start today, the Columbus Crew would start off the plays in the same standing as the LA Galaxy despite the Galaxy being top of the table and Seattle, Dallas and Colorado having more points, because of the conference alignment used to determine playoff seeding. Given the nature of the MLS schedule the Crew shouldn't be given a fresh start with equal chance at the Cup in late October.

Playoff soccer, while very exciting, is also a problem in determining which team truly is best. Goals can be hard to come by in soccer. An inferior team can "pack it in" for an entire game and, with luck, prevent a superior team from scoring. It is very common to see that style adopted during important games and playoff matches. A team who is playing entirely defensively only need to be able to spring a single counter-attack that results in a goal and they could advance knocking out perhaps a team that is more deserving of the Cup. Playoff soccer is in essence a crapshoot and it is no way to determine which team gets the MLS Cup.

I'm not opposed to all playoff soccer. It's exciting and there are competitions already established that use that format. The U.S. Open Cup and CONCACAF Champions League each use playoffs at least to some degree and MLS teams participate.

MLS does deserve credit for having a trophy for the regular season champion, the "Supporter's Shield," which also gives a place to the winning side in the Champions League. Also, while I don't think any playoff system should be used, the system adopted by MLS is unique and more fair than in most sports. It places importance on both conference and overall point total.

Perhaps the primary issue is that teams simply play to get into the playoffs and will take their chances in the tournament. The system makes games in October more important than the ones in April. The champion of the league should reflect which team has been the best through the long season not the team that gets hot late. MLS could still have a playoff to determine a Champions League spot at the end of the season to reward a team that is coming into form late, but it shouldn't determine who gets the trophy.

Thanks for reading and please comment

-Michael
*MLS penalties were not the traditional penalties either. They were much more akin to Hockey.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Me Chewing Out an Imaginary Bob Bradley

Why did you turn to a 4-5-1 formation? I know Jozy getting injured against Jamaica took out our best striker, by a wide margin, but why does that mean putting someone out top alone. If anything, Agudelo or Wondolowski need a partner in attack. They're not the type of strikers to play alone. The only U.S. striker who has the capabilities to play alone successfully is Altidore. So why in his absence did you not replace him with a midfielder and not a striker? Another problem was you didn't call the best inform striker we have. Charlie Davies is recovered and scoring goals like mad for DC. He should've been on the roster.

Then there's the starting line-up against Mexico in the final. Not only did you not even bother to start an actual striker, none of the six midfielders you started actually played the role. Dempsey is definitely capable of playing that role, but he was never the most forward midfielder. It really seemed as though there was a lot of confusion as to who should fill what role. Bedoya and Adu both were playing RM. Donovan seemed to be playing CAM, which is a role he's capable of playing, but he really belongs out wide. Dempsey was on the Left. Bradley and Jones played a central holding role. It was really just a cluster fuck in midfield.

There is a reason why no one's ever used a 4-6-0 formation. It's because it doesn't work and no one with even a rudimentary understanding of Soccer strategy would ever try it. It's surprising that we even managed any goals yesterday. It was lucky that for the first time in this tournament our guys actually finished efficiently.

What made it most evident that this team is not progressing is the failings in defense that have been a signature of tenure as manager. It is either lack of talent or poor coaching. If it's that the players aren't good enough, why have failed to bring in new defenders to try to improve this problem? There are plenty of good defenders eligible defenders who haven't gotten a real look under your regime. However you've stuck with roughly the same group of defenders. I don't think that's the case though. I think those are the best defenders that our nation has produced an they are more than good enough.

It is clear that good defending is not the priority of the coaching staff. There is an absolute lack of discipline. There isn't any understanding of who should have which responsibility. The frequency of defensive errors by this team is unacceptable.

It's unfortunate that our Soccer Federation felt that you getting the team into the knockout rounds was good enough to give you another stint. If it were up to me, you'd have been let go then. We can't afford another wasted four years. I hope the painful underachievement since The World Cup by this team will be enough to open their eyes and bring someone new in. Our window is closing. This cycle will be our last/best chance and you have become a hindrance to greater achievement.

-Michael


Saturday, June 25, 2011

U.S. Soccer Needs a Hub

I've been ranting on Twitter about the terrible locations the U.S. Soccer Federation has chosen for the important matches of the Gold Cup. The Semi-Finals were in Houston were U.S. fan support was at a minimum the support the other teams was high. Green was the dominant color because the overwhelming majority of fans that were there were supporting the Mexican team against Honduras. The atmosphere around that match was so much more energetic than the U.S. match. It seems like if we're going to host the tournament we ought to at least give our team the home-field advantage. I'm certain the final tonight at the Rose Bowl in Los Angeles will be much of the same with Mexican support greatly outnumbering U.S. support.

I think the United States Soccer Federation needs to stop treating our National team like a touring team. I understand that the United States is a big place, but we need to behave like the other soccer powers and recognize the demographics and have what I'll call a soccer hub. Every time the U.S. Men's National teams takes a trip to Mexico they play in the same place. Azteca Stadium in Mexico City. It's exceedingly hostile, it has high elevation and terrible pollution. The United States has never won a game there.

Why shouldn't the United States do the same thing? We should give ourselves the greatest home-field advantage we can for big games. It's not that the team shouldn't play games outside of one place, but important games should be played in the most advantageous place.

I have come up with a list of five cities to potentially to fill this role. The rankings are not arbitrary .

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1) Seattle, Washington

Stadium: Qwest Field (67,000)


Hispanic Population: 6.6%


An important factor is that it has the most rabid and largest fan base of any professional soccer team in the United States. They're already well organized, loud and have a love for the game. That's not mention that Qwest Field is probably the loudest stadium in the country. The Seahawks are often accused of pumping in artificial noise because it gets so loud. Also, importantly it has a low Hispanic population.

There are two cons with Seattle. First is location. It's in a corner and a very long trip for the member's of Sam's Army not located in the Northwest. Second is weather. Seattle isn't exactly a warm weather city, but it isn't exactly a cold weather one either. Given that most other CONCACAF teams are entirely warm weather a cold weather city would help in those winter qualifiers.

Seattle is probably the best location for Fan Support and the worst in terms of environmental advantages.

2) Boston, Massachusetts

Stadium: Gillette Stadium (69,000)

Hispanic Population: 17.5%

Boston showed that they can turn up for a big game before the Gold Cup with that (forgettable) friendly against Spain. It's definitely a cold weather city and a pretty small Hispanic population for that major of a city.

The fan support in Boston won't be as strong as it would be in Seattle.

3) Denver, Colorado

Stadium: Invesco Field (76,000)

Hispanic Population: 34.1%

Denver is definitely the environmental winner. Not only is it a cold weather city; it also has elevation on it's side. However, our biggest rival is Mexico and elevation isn't a problem for them. It would be an issue for nearly everyone else in CONCACAF thoug

The problem is the high Hispanic population, which is overwhelmingly Mexican. Also fan support for the Rapids isn't great and I don't suspect the Men's National Team could come close to filling the stadium.

4) Chicago, Illinois

Stadium: Soldier Field (61,500)

Hispanic Population: 28.9%

The coldest of the cold weather cities. Also Soldier Field is a historic stadium that would make an excellent home for a team. It is also as centrally located as you could hope for.

However, it has similar problems to Denver. High Hispanic population and not great support for the Fire.

5) Columbus, Ohio

Stadium: Columbus Crew Stadium (20,000)

Hispanic Population: 4.5%

Well, this is just selfish. Columbus always does turn up the U.S. team though even in shitty conditions like cold, rainy/snowy like against Mexico in 2009. Columbus Crew Stadium is also the first soccer specific stadium built in the country and the only one on the list. A really low Hispanic population as well.

The problem is capacity. Columbus has a huge stadium, but that one doesn't work at all for soccer (see Crew prior to the current stadium.)

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I want to apologize if I sound like a Latino hater. I'm really not. I welcome immigrants into the United States. I don't care if they continue to support their national team. I just want the U.S. to have a home field advantage. Large groups of Hispanics supporting their team in the stadium runs contrary to that.

What do you think of this? Any other cities you'd like to suggest?

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

The Sky Isn't Falling... Yet

I don't think Tressel should've been forced to resign. I'm disappointed that Gene Smith and Gordon Gee didn't stick by him when they said they would. However, I'm done with being his apologist. The Sports Illustrated Article that published late last night is pretty damning. There are ways pick at the article. Just like pretty much everything else that has become news about Ohio State since December the sources are dubious. Most of the sources really lack believability as they're anonymous, have an ax to grind or are criminals. That being said I won't deny any of the claims in that article. I've been denying for 6 months and everything is proving to be true thus far.

I suspect that Terrelle Pryor and probably the rest of the Players who were suspended will enter the NFL Supplemental Draft. First, I think they're loyalty was to Tressel. That's why they stayed. Second, with this entire shit storm, it's pretty clear that Pryor won't be playing at all next Season at Ohio State and I wouldn't be surprised if the others aren't implicated in this as well.

It was worrying when the allegations about the 6 players came out six months ago. When ever Journalists and the NCAA start digging around in a major College Football town, they're going to find stuff. There are too many boosters who want to feel like they're part of the success of the team and the players aren't mature enough to resist. Major College athletics is corrupted everywhere. It's not just Columbus, Ohio where stuff goes down no matter how much ESPN tries to say otherwise.

It's strange though how much the tenor has changed since we found out about the Tattoo scandal in December. Back then it was about how unfair it was that the players couldn't sell their own property. Now it's all encompassed in this business and those are such terrible violations of NCAA rules. A lot more has come out since then, but it all still points back to the dealings at the tattoo parlor. It seems to me this scandal is blown out of proportion.

I've already had my rant about the lack of legitimacy of the NCAA though.

However, I don't think Ohio State fans should fret too much. Just because Tressel and in all likely Pryor are gone doesn't mean next year is a waste. It still seems to me that OSU should be favorites for the Big-10 again. Even if some key players are missing, it's not a huge deal, because the back-ups at Ohio Sate are pretty damn good. Recruiting may be down for a while, but it'll recover.

The only thing that could really screw Ohio State up is the NCAA being to heavy handed with their ruling in August. There will be penalties and they're deserved, but all these media hype may make them want to slaughter the Buckeyes to try and show they aren't horribly corrupt and useless. Ohio State doesn't deserve penalties as severe as what USC received, because despite the hype these violations aren't as bad as what Reggie Bush did all by himself.

I think a fair* ruling would be Scholarship reductions similar to USC, increasing the player suspensions, vacating the wins from 2010, and a "show-cause" penalty for Tressel.

Thanks for reading

-Michael

*I'm not really objective here though and the NCAA has no concept of what "fair" is so it's kind of useless.

Monday, May 23, 2011

Columbus Crew 2011: The Rant

Robert Warzycha was almost without doubt the best wide player the Crew have ever had. He's the all-time assist leader for the club. He came to MLS from the EPL long before David Beckham and the Designated Player rule. His talent as a player is unquestionable, but it isn't translating that well to the role of manager. His particular short-coming seems to be in building a squad. It's not that he hasn't brought in talented players. It's that they don't fit well together and is a train wreck on the pitch.

The Crew have played ten games in MLS this season and have only managed eight goals. That's not horrendous until you get the kicker: four of those goals are from penalties. Four goals from the run of play. That's just pathetic especially in the MLS where, to put it nicely, defense is not the strength. The Crew definitely have players that are capable of producing goal. Cunningham alone is just short of becoming the MLS all-time leading scorer*.

The biggest problem with this team became evident to me in the first leg of the Crew's CONCACAF Champions League match-up against Real Salt Lake. That game was the worst soccer game I've ever watched. It's not that it was a nil-nil draw, because I will defend the value of 0-0 games until I'm blue in the face. There were virtually zero chances created. The Crew had plenty of control of the ball and the better of the play, but it would always breakdown in crucial moment.

There is a breakdown between the midfield and the attackers with the Crew this season. The Crew have had the better of the play frequently this season and a dominant defense as well. The midfield play has been poor, but I don't think that's because the midfielders themselves are bad at the game. These guys played well last year. It's that they are longer be utilized properly.

This year is the first year that The Crew has become Warzycha's team. The past two seasons it's been the roster that was built by Sigi Schmidt before he ditched** the Crew for Seattle. Following the 2010 MLS season Warzcha was able to let many of Sigi's signings go and he did just that. He also brought in a few players, but the cuts definitely outweighed the gains.

The problem with the midfield is the absence of a true center midfielder. Kevin Burns and Dejan Rusmir are central mids, but they are defensive and don't really help in the attack. The four other midfielders who see playing time are all wide players like Warzycha was. There is a myth that Expo can play CM, but he doesn't do it very well at all. His pace would be much better used on the wing and his lack luster passing and ball control would be better hidden. The Crew really need a player in the Center midfield who can control the ball and make plays and players like that were shown the door this winter.

Also, this didn't fit neatly into my argument, but I geniuenly hate the 4-5-1. The switch to the 4-4-2 last weekend was a start.

All that being said, the Roster can't be cured during the season. In theory a trade could happen, but I don't think that's likely. The Crew does have the talent to compete in the MLS, but it's going to require better utilization. I think Renteria can be used to help fill the hole in central midfield by putting him into a CAM or CF role. I think the Crew's roster could be best used in the 4-3-1-2 formation like this(more accurately what I would do):


I don't particularly love Gaven in that role, but I think he's the best option for it. He could be subbed out for Rusmir or Burns if the Crew can get a lead and it would be a more 4-1-2-1-2 look.

Forgive the sloppiness of it and thanks for reading

-Michael

*At this rate he won't get the record though.
**Never forgiven

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Browns' Draft Discussion

For a team with such a poor defense, it's amazing how specialized the Brown's defensive roster became under Eric Mangini. Therefore, the transition to the 4-3 defense isn't going to be a very smooth one. Most notable is the absence of a player who is a good fit at 4-3 defensive end. Matt Roth may work, but I doubt he'll be an average DE. Marcus Bernard is a great pass rusher, but he's not going to work with his hand in the ground on every play. That being said, I'm still advocating the Brown's drafting a Wide Receiver with their first pick.

I almost always advocate drafting defense and offensive line players high. I really hate that almost every first round pick the Browns have had sine their return has been spent of an offensive player. I believe that a philosophy where defenders are drafted high and you can find offensive talent later works well.

However, The Browns offense can't function with any success with the players it has now. There is no receiving threat. All but a few defenses in the NFL can line up with the Browns receiving corps one-on-one and not worry about getting beat. That means the running game can be easily stuffed and on passing downs there's freedom to bring heavy blitzes. I think Colt McCoy could be a good NFL Quarterback, but he will certainly fail in this offense.

There is a lot a hesitance about drafting a Receiver so high in the draft. An argument that is heard a lot is that a receiver only can have an impact when he touches the ball, which requires a lot of things to happen before hand. Whereas other positions can have impacts on every play. I don't think that's right. A talented receiver can create more fear in a defense than any other player on the field. The defense isn't able to compact against the run with out the risk of allowing a deep Touchdown.

Obviously, The Browns shouldn't take just any receiver at the 6th pick. A.J. Green is one of the top prospects in the Draft. He would be the number one person on my board if I were in the Browns' Front Office. Julio Jones is a bit more interesting. He certainly wasn't considered worthy of the 6th pick prior to the combine. He was very impressive at the combine; posting big numbers. Of course that can be deceiving. The combine makes a blind man out of a lot of talent scouts.

I think Jones is worth the pick. Hist talent is evident. He's not as sure of a thing as I think Green is, but that doesn't mean he won't work out in the NFL.

As the Browns are drafting sixth, here is how I think the Browns should rank their prospects:

1. A.J. Green WR- Georgia

2. Julio Jones WR- Alabama

3. Marcell Dareus DT- Alabama

4. Patrick Peterson CB- LSU

5. Robert Quinn DE- UNC

6. Nick Fairley DT- Auburn

Everyone always wants to trade down and that wouldn't be a terrible choice for the Browns. However, it is almost impossible to trade out of a high pick. A team has to give up so much to move up in the draft and it's such a risk. Trading up can set a Franchise back if it goes wrong. So, usually a team is trapped in a high pick and needs to take the player that is best for their franchise.

Thanks for reading.

-Michael

Monday, April 4, 2011

National Championship Prediction

I think this game will be similar to last year's national championship game. It'll be tight throughout. Connecticut has the edge in talent, but Butler's game can negate that advantage. I personally think Brad Stevens is the best coach in college basketball. His team is very disciplined and almost always come out with an effective game plan.

I think that ultimately that the difference in the game is going to be Kemba Walker. He's been the best player in college basketball late in the season. Butler won't stress down the stretch, but neither will Walker. He'll make the needed shots down the stretch.

Connecticut(-3.5) 65
Butler 63

-Michael

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

The Anatomy of an Upset

I love the NCAA basketball tournament. It's my favorite sporting event. The first weekend is so exciting. It's checking how broken your bracket. Surprising upsets. It's exciting college basketball from noon to midnight. It's the only thing like it.

The upsets are always fun to watch. What I've done is compiled some things that a team looking to pull the upset needs to do. These are not about X and Os or match ups, but about the psychology of it. The caveat for all of these is "unless you're really that good."

Don't Wake the Sleeping Giant

It may seem counter-intuitive, but getting up a big lead isn't ideal for pulling an upset. If the game is close, it can lull the higher seed into a false sense of security. As long as the game stays within a few possessions either way, the better won't necessarily 'flip the switch.'

If the underdog starts to pull away, the stronger team will realize they need to get going and can end up burying the lower seed.

Here are two brilliant examples of this:



And the closest I've ever seen to a 16 beating a 1: Connecticut vs. Albany

Survive the Run

There is a reason why the higher seeded team is rated above the lower seeded team. The higher seeded team will have at least one spurt where they can change the game. It could be a run where they go from two possessions down to three possessions up.

The team that's trying to pull an upset can't let that be a dagger. They need to simply take a timeout and start chipping away. They don't have to answer with a run of their own, necessarily, but need to narrow the margin to something that'll give them a chance at the end, if the higher seed has taken the lead.

The key is to stop the run before it gets out of hand. That helps with the next thing.

Win the Neutrals

The unique thing about the NCAA tournament is the amount of neutrals who are at the games. Eight teams are at the same arena in the first weekend, so while the higher seeds fan base may be sizable, it will be at least matched by neutral observes in most places.

The neutrals are already predisposed to support the underdog, but won't really to vocalize it unless the underdog gives a reason. Keeping the game close and playing with loads of effort are not only necessary to have any hope to pull an upset, but also will make it so you have fans in the building your playing in to make it harder for the other team.

Make Your Damn Free Throws

This is good advice for any team in the tournament, but it is essential for a team looking to pull an upset. Missing free throws can change the dynamic of a game. In end of game situations, making foul shots will ensure victory.

Bad free throw shooting is contagious, so a team looking to pull an upset needs to keep their confidence high at the line by making their foul shots throughout the game. That makes it easier in the late game situations, because missed free throws from earlier in the game can haunt the shooter.

There you have it. Four things I think are key to pull a big upset.

Expect more tournament posts in the near future.

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Ohio State @ Wisconsin- Bad Defense Makes Me a Sad Panda

I'm going to tell you something about me and basketball. In basically all sports, I love good defense. I know a lot of people like high scoring, fast paced action, but not me. I want my teams to dominate on the defensive end. So, I don't mind if Ohio State has a game where they don't shoot well. That wasn't really the case today though. The problem today was defensive mistakes and those piss me off.

Wisconsin was able to shoot 12 of 25 from beyond the arc. I think most people are inclined to say that was just Wisconsin shooting lights out. I don't think that was the case today. On defense Ohio State failed to close out quickly or simply failed to respect the ability of all of Wisconsin's players to knock the three. Perhaps, the example of this that most upset me was in the second half. Taylor brought the ball up the to the left wing. Even though he had knocked down basically everything he had put up in the second half, Craft played entirely to take away his ability to drive right, which allowed him an easy three.

Twice, Wisconsin got bailed out by Ohio State defenders committing stupid fouls with only one second left on the shot clock. One was by Craft and the other was Diebler, but both were the same dumb mistake. It's a simple rule on defense, don't leave your feet against a jump shooter. The result was after playing 34 seconds of great defense Wisconsin was handed points.

I've been so impressed with Aaron Craft's defense so far this year. His defense has effectively shut down virtually every guard he's been put against. Today he was solid against Taylor, but he made quite a few critical mistakes. He's still the best man defender on the team and will important if Ohio State is to have a legitimate chance at the National Championship.

It just sucks that the Buckeye's lost today. For some reason it's even more annoying know Ohio State would've won if there were no three point line. I'm not one to look for a positive in a loss. The idea that the pressure is off seems like nonsense to me. However, Ohio State still has a 2-game lead on the field in the Big 10, so Wisconsin and their despicable fans can suck on that.

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael

Friday, February 4, 2011

Catch-up

I've kind of(totally) left this place and forgot to look back. That wasn't the plan, I promise. So since the last real post a lot has happened. Ohio State has won a bowl game. The Browns have fired Mangini and replaced him with Pat Shumur. All the suspended Ohio State players have actually returned for their senior seasons. The entirety of the NFL playoffs. Ohio State Basketball has gone undefeated into February.

I'll hit on a few key things. Then hopefully, I'll keep this place updated, so posts like this won't be necessary.

Pat Shumur

I actually rather like this hire. It's never really possible to know how a coordinator will translate into a head coach, but it's nice to see the Browns finally breaking their habits in hiring. I felt it was important to go and get a coach with an offensive background and that's exactly what Shumur is. The Browns were desperately lacking in talent and effective schemes on offense last season. The talent problem isn't going to fix itself very quickly, but at least there should now be NFL level offensive play calling.

It does seem as though there will be switch to the 4-3 defense. That does concern me a bit. Personally I think the 3-4 is better. However the real problem is that the Browns don't have 4-3 personnel. The closest thing to a 4-3 end is Matt Roth. Simply, the Browns defensive roster after many seasons of the 3-4 became quite specialized. I'm just not sure if the defense is good enough for a clean slate.

Of course all this only matters if there is actually football next season.

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Ohio State's Basketball

Periodically on Twitter, I have spammed my few followers with my praise of Jared Sullinger. I honestly believe that he is the best post player I've seen at Ohio State. He might just be the best front court player I've seen in College Basketball. Still, I didn't think things would have gone this well for this team.

Perhaps the thing I'm most impressed with is the defensive strength of this team. Aaron Craft and David Lighty are both fantastic defenders. Effectively when those two are on the court for Ohio State the other team is playing with 3 men offensively.

I doubt this team will remain unbeaten. There's a really tough patch coming up in the schedule. Also, Ohio State teams are notorious for leaving the Big 10 tournament on Friday. Still this team is probably Ohio State's best shot at a National title in many decades.

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Super Bowl

There are few things that I really and truly hate. One of those things is the Pittsburgh Steelers though. I don't want this game to go well for them at all. I don't want it to be close. I want the Green Bay Packers to come out on Sunday and put up 70 points of the Steelers.

I'm not just a Steeler-hater. I'm also a Green Bay lover. You see, Green Bay is my adopted team. In the period when the Browns weren't around, Green Bay was the team I cheered for. So, they too are my team. It's just that if the buildings burning down and I can only save one, I'm saving the Browns.

To help illustrate my point and prove that I have too much time on my hands I've made a list of NFL teams. The order is not about talent. It's not about draft order. This is more like a personal pecking order of teams. Simply put, it's the order in which I like the teams.

The middle, which I put from 3-24, is very murky for me. I suffer from some indifference towards those teams. My opinion of those teams can change based on how they can effect my teams or even the teams I truly dislike. Here's the list:

1. Cleveland Browns

2. Green Bay Packers

3. New Orleans Saints

4. Miami Dolphins

5. Indianapolis Colts

6. Seattle Seahawks

7. Houston Texans

8. St. Louis Rams

9. Tennessee Titans

10. Kansas City Chiefs

11. Philadelphia Eagles

12. Arizona Cardinals

13. San Diego Chargers

14. Atlanta Falcons

15. New York Giants

16. Jacksonville Jaguars

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

18. San Francisco 49ers

19. Carolina Panthers

20. Detroit Lions

21. Washington Redskins

22. Buffalo Bills

23. Minnesota Vikings

24. New York Jets

25. Chicago Bears

26. Oakland Raiders

27. Dallas Cowboys

28. New England Patriots

29. Denver Broncos

30. Cincinnati Bengals

31. Baltimore Ravens

32. Pittsburgh Steelers

Ok, Here's my Super Bowl Prediction

Green Bay(-2.5) 27
Pittsburgb 25

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael.

Monday, January 10, 2011

National Championship

Sorry about not keeping up to date on the picks. I have been busy the past few weeks.

Tonight, I think Oregon will win and I'll leave the points.

Thanks for reading.

-Michael

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Sugar Bowl

I think the Sugar Bowl will be a back and forth game. My prediction is that Ohio State will cover.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Orange Bowl

Sorry about not posting picks for the games on New Year's Day. I didn't have my usual facilities, so it wasn't really possible.

Tonight's Orange Bowl is an interesting match-up. Virginia Tech is definitely an underdog and deserve to be so. I agree that Stanford will win, but I think Virginia Tech will keep it close. I don't think it'll be exactly nip and tuck, but I think somehow Virginia will have a chance to win the game on its final possession.

Orange Bowl: Stanford(-4) vs Virginia Tech
Winner: Virginia Tech

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael