The Anatomy of an Upset

I love the NCAA basketball tournament. It's my favorite sporting event. The first weekend is so exciting. It's checking how broken your bracket. Surprising upsets. It's exciting college basketball from noon to midnight. It's the only thing like it.

The upsets are always fun to watch. What I've done is compiled some things that a team looking to pull the upset needs to do. These are not about X and Os or match ups, but about the psychology of it. The caveat for all of these is "unless you're really that good."

Don't Wake the Sleeping Giant

It may seem counter-intuitive, but getting up a big lead isn't ideal for pulling an upset. If the game is close, it can lull the higher seed into a false sense of security. As long as the game stays within a few possessions either way, the better won't necessarily 'flip the switch.'

If the underdog starts to pull away, the stronger team will realize they need to get going and can end up burying the lower seed.

Here are two brilliant examples of this:



And the closest I've ever seen to a 16 beating a 1: Connecticut vs. Albany

Survive the Run

There is a reason why the higher seeded team is rated above the lower seeded team. The higher seeded team will have at least one spurt where they can change the game. It could be a run where they go from two possessions down to three possessions up.

The team that's trying to pull an upset can't let that be a dagger. They need to simply take a timeout and start chipping away. They don't have to answer with a run of their own, necessarily, but need to narrow the margin to something that'll give them a chance at the end, if the higher seed has taken the lead.

The key is to stop the run before it gets out of hand. That helps with the next thing.

Win the Neutrals

The unique thing about the NCAA tournament is the amount of neutrals who are at the games. Eight teams are at the same arena in the first weekend, so while the higher seeds fan base may be sizable, it will be at least matched by neutral observes in most places.

The neutrals are already predisposed to support the underdog, but won't really to vocalize it unless the underdog gives a reason. Keeping the game close and playing with loads of effort are not only necessary to have any hope to pull an upset, but also will make it so you have fans in the building your playing in to make it harder for the other team.

Make Your Damn Free Throws

This is good advice for any team in the tournament, but it is essential for a team looking to pull an upset. Missing free throws can change the dynamic of a game. In end of game situations, making foul shots will ensure victory.

Bad free throw shooting is contagious, so a team looking to pull an upset needs to keep their confidence high at the line by making their foul shots throughout the game. That makes it easier in the late game situations, because missed free throws from earlier in the game can haunt the shooter.

There you have it. Four things I think are key to pull a big upset.

Expect more tournament posts in the near future.

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael