The Crew's success in 2011 was surprising. The expectations were low given Warzycha's implosion of the team following the 2010 seaswon. The team peaked reaching the top of the Eastern Conference in mid-August, but after an embarrassment in Seattle the team limped through September, only earning one point in that month, and only managed to make the playoffs as a wild card. After the 1-0 defeat in Colorado, it was a disappointing end to a season that looked promising during the summer.
The issue the Crew had last season was a severe lack of attacking prowess. The struggles were particularly evident early in the season, but while they improved later on the attack was far from potent. Double-digit goal scorer Andres Mendoza didn't have his option picked up by the Crew this nor did MLS and Columbus Crew all-time scoring leader, Jeff Cunningham. These losses are not particularly painful as Mendoza may be the worst player ever to score more than 10 goals and Cunningham was unproductive in his return to the team last season.
The attack has had two big additions this off-season. Milovan Mirosevic and Olman Vargas were brought in from Chile and Costa Rica (respectively) on non-DP contracts. Mirosevic may add the vision and skill going forward from the central midfield that the Crew lacked so desperately last season. Vargas could be a Strike partner for the returning Emilio Renteria who had an injury plagued season in 2011. There could also be more additions to the strike force before the start of the season or even during. The club would like to add a DP striker but hasn't been able to snag one preseason and will likely try again during the Summer Transfer Window.
The defense was strong prior to the late-season meltdown. There was a lack of depth at Center Back, which was most painfully exposed by Julius James' absence against Seattle. Depth has been added with the addition of Carlos Mendes. The new area of concern is Left Back. Shaun Francis is the clear starter with the loss of Josh Gardner in the Expansion draft to Montreal. He doesn't really have a back up though. It looks as though Warzycha is going to address this with an "unnamed target".
Scheduling
The Crew along with the other teams in the Eastern Conference got a boost this offseason with the change to the MLS schedule format with the addition of Montreal. In 2011, teams played 34 games with each team playing each team in the League at home and away. In 2012, MLS is moving to a 'conference-based' schedule. A team in the Eastern conference will play seven of the other teams in the conference 3 times and the remaining two twice as well as playing the nine teams from the western conference once.
The Eastern Conference was undoubtedly the weaker of the conferences in 2011 and looks to be the same in 2012. Avoiding a game with L.A. or Seattle and replacing it with one against Toronto or Chicago helps a team's chances at acquiring points significantly. It also means that the point totals from the Eastern conference are going to be bloated making the Supporter's Shield less significant.
Starting 11
I think it is likely that the Crew will go with a 4-4-2 or a variation of it for this season. Warzycha has shown himself to an aggressive manager, but he isn't entirely immune to the 4-5-1 bug, but I think two strikers is the best way to go. Here's my predicted starting 11:
GK: Hesmer
D: Miranda, James, Marshall, Francis
M: Gaven, O'Rourke, Mirosevic, Duka*
F: Vargas*, Renteria
*Position not secure
The two biggest exits of the offseason were Emmanuel Expo and Robbie Rogers. They were every game starters in the midfield last season. Expo never really adapted well to playing in the central midfield and Mirosevic will be an improvement in that slot. Filling Rogers' spot down the left wing is a little more tricky, which is what makes Duka not secure in that spot.
Dilly Duka seems to be the guy next in line and seems ready for a breakout year. However, the wing may not be the best place for him. He is also a right footed player and that always has the danger of making the field narrow going down the left side. His best competition for that spot would definitely be Bernardo Anor. He is left footed and showed a lot of promise when Robbie Rogers was away for the Gold Cup last season. He is also pretty good with set pieces, which is something that the Crew need with the loss of Josh Gardner.
Up front Vargas is likely the starter right now. Heinemann has a chance at the spot, but it seems that the team are going to add another striker to pair with Renteria.
Prediction
The point total will be inflated compared to 2011, but I think 2012 won't be much of an improvement in end result. The Eastern Conference was very muddled last season, so a finish could be anywhere between 2nd and 6th for the Crew depending on how things go this season. Ideally the Crew would be able to avoid the Wild Card round by finishing in the top three. I'm fairly confident the Crew will be playing the post season.
Thanks for reading and please comment
-Michael
