National Champtionship Prediction

I think the National Championship game this year stands in stark contrast with the turn college football* seems to have complete this year. These are two teams with outstanding defenses that are the highlight of their teams. They both actually have pretty damn good offenses as well, but they're defenses carry the day. Defense has really come to be a bit of a relic as the smart people who come up with offensive schemes have realized just how handicapped the defense is by the rules.

When Alabama and LSU met in the regular season, it was a game dominated by defenses and mistakes**. It was pretty clear that both defenses were well ahead of their offensive counterparts. I do think Alabama played a better game than LSU and would've won by a relatively large margin with an average Field Goal Kicker.

When looking at the game tomorrow there is one major variance from the last time. Jarrett Lee is no long in the picture for LSU. Sixty minutes of Jordan Jefferson at QB will be an improvement for the LSU offense.

However, even with LSU's improvement at QB is likely to be outweighed by the long layoff. A month between games causes rust and rust generally favors the defenses. I think Alabama's defense is better than the LSU defense. I also think Alabama's running game is stronger, which is less effected by the layoff.

I think the game will be similar to their first meeting. I don't see a lot of scoring or even an average amount of scoring. It'll be a game of field position and ball control. I think Alabama did both of those things better in the first game, but missed field goals did them in. That problem hasn't been remedied, but I think Saban will do a good job of working around it. I expect Alabama to punt at the edge of Field Goal range and trust their defense. Also, I expect Alabama has prepared for having to attempt quite a few fourth down conversion.

I think Alabama is going to win the National Championship game. I don't think the 'home-field' advantage is going to be nearly as strong as it has been for LSU in New Orleans in the past. Alabama will score touchdowns in what will otherwise be a battle of fields goals due to necessity and that will win the game.

Alabama 14
LSU 13

-Michael

*The NFL is in much the same boat.
**Normal people seem to call it boring, but I'm not normal