The Anatomy of an Upset

I love the NCAA basketball tournament. It's my favorite sporting event. The first weekend is so exciting. It's checking how broken your bracket. Surprising upsets. It's exciting college basketball from noon to midnight. It's the only thing like it.

The upsets are always fun to watch. What I've done is compiled some things that a team looking to pull the upset needs to do. These are not about X and Os or match ups, but about the psychology of it. The caveat for all of these is "unless you're really that good."

Don't Wake the Sleeping Giant

It may seem counter-intuitive, but getting up a big lead isn't ideal for pulling an upset. If the game is close, it can lull the higher seed into a false sense of security. As long as the game stays within a few possessions either way, the better won't necessarily 'flip the switch.'

If the underdog starts to pull away, the stronger team will realize they need to get going and can end up burying the lower seed.

Here are two brilliant examples of this:



And the closest I've ever seen to a 16 beating a 1: Connecticut vs. Albany

Survive the Run

There is a reason why the higher seeded team is rated above the lower seeded team. The higher seeded team will have at least one spurt where they can change the game. It could be a run where they go from two possessions down to three possessions up.

The team that's trying to pull an upset can't let that be a dagger. They need to simply take a timeout and start chipping away. They don't have to answer with a run of their own, necessarily, but need to narrow the margin to something that'll give them a chance at the end, if the higher seed has taken the lead.

The key is to stop the run before it gets out of hand. That helps with the next thing.

Win the Neutrals

The unique thing about the NCAA tournament is the amount of neutrals who are at the games. Eight teams are at the same arena in the first weekend, so while the higher seeds fan base may be sizable, it will be at least matched by neutral observes in most places.

The neutrals are already predisposed to support the underdog, but won't really to vocalize it unless the underdog gives a reason. Keeping the game close and playing with loads of effort are not only necessary to have any hope to pull an upset, but also will make it so you have fans in the building your playing in to make it harder for the other team.

Make Your Damn Free Throws

This is good advice for any team in the tournament, but it is essential for a team looking to pull an upset. Missing free throws can change the dynamic of a game. In end of game situations, making foul shots will ensure victory.

Bad free throw shooting is contagious, so a team looking to pull an upset needs to keep their confidence high at the line by making their foul shots throughout the game. That makes it easier in the late game situations, because missed free throws from earlier in the game can haunt the shooter.

There you have it. Four things I think are key to pull a big upset.

Expect more tournament posts in the near future.

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael

Ohio State @ Wisconsin- Bad Defense Makes Me a Sad Panda

I'm going to tell you something about me and basketball. In basically all sports, I love good defense. I know a lot of people like high scoring, fast paced action, but not me. I want my teams to dominate on the defensive end. So, I don't mind if Ohio State has a game where they don't shoot well. That wasn't really the case today though. The problem today was defensive mistakes and those piss me off.

Wisconsin was able to shoot 12 of 25 from beyond the arc. I think most people are inclined to say that was just Wisconsin shooting lights out. I don't think that was the case today. On defense Ohio State failed to close out quickly or simply failed to respect the ability of all of Wisconsin's players to knock the three. Perhaps, the example of this that most upset me was in the second half. Taylor brought the ball up the to the left wing. Even though he had knocked down basically everything he had put up in the second half, Craft played entirely to take away his ability to drive right, which allowed him an easy three.

Twice, Wisconsin got bailed out by Ohio State defenders committing stupid fouls with only one second left on the shot clock. One was by Craft and the other was Diebler, but both were the same dumb mistake. It's a simple rule on defense, don't leave your feet against a jump shooter. The result was after playing 34 seconds of great defense Wisconsin was handed points.

I've been so impressed with Aaron Craft's defense so far this year. His defense has effectively shut down virtually every guard he's been put against. Today he was solid against Taylor, but he made quite a few critical mistakes. He's still the best man defender on the team and will important if Ohio State is to have a legitimate chance at the National Championship.

It just sucks that the Buckeye's lost today. For some reason it's even more annoying know Ohio State would've won if there were no three point line. I'm not one to look for a positive in a loss. The idea that the pressure is off seems like nonsense to me. However, Ohio State still has a 2-game lead on the field in the Big 10, so Wisconsin and their despicable fans can suck on that.

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael

Catch-up

I've kind of(totally) left this place and forgot to look back. That wasn't the plan, I promise. So since the last real post a lot has happened. Ohio State has won a bowl game. The Browns have fired Mangini and replaced him with Pat Shumur. All the suspended Ohio State players have actually returned for their senior seasons. The entirety of the NFL playoffs. Ohio State Basketball has gone undefeated into February.

I'll hit on a few key things. Then hopefully, I'll keep this place updated, so posts like this won't be necessary.

Pat Shumur

I actually rather like this hire. It's never really possible to know how a coordinator will translate into a head coach, but it's nice to see the Browns finally breaking their habits in hiring. I felt it was important to go and get a coach with an offensive background and that's exactly what Shumur is. The Browns were desperately lacking in talent and effective schemes on offense last season. The talent problem isn't going to fix itself very quickly, but at least there should now be NFL level offensive play calling.

It does seem as though there will be switch to the 4-3 defense. That does concern me a bit. Personally I think the 3-4 is better. However the real problem is that the Browns don't have 4-3 personnel. The closest thing to a 4-3 end is Matt Roth. Simply, the Browns defensive roster after many seasons of the 3-4 became quite specialized. I'm just not sure if the defense is good enough for a clean slate.

Of course all this only matters if there is actually football next season.

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Ohio State's Basketball

Periodically on Twitter, I have spammed my few followers with my praise of Jared Sullinger. I honestly believe that he is the best post player I've seen at Ohio State. He might just be the best front court player I've seen in College Basketball. Still, I didn't think things would have gone this well for this team.

Perhaps the thing I'm most impressed with is the defensive strength of this team. Aaron Craft and David Lighty are both fantastic defenders. Effectively when those two are on the court for Ohio State the other team is playing with 3 men offensively.

I doubt this team will remain unbeaten. There's a really tough patch coming up in the schedule. Also, Ohio State teams are notorious for leaving the Big 10 tournament on Friday. Still this team is probably Ohio State's best shot at a National title in many decades.

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Super Bowl

There are few things that I really and truly hate. One of those things is the Pittsburgh Steelers though. I don't want this game to go well for them at all. I don't want it to be close. I want the Green Bay Packers to come out on Sunday and put up 70 points of the Steelers.

I'm not just a Steeler-hater. I'm also a Green Bay lover. You see, Green Bay is my adopted team. In the period when the Browns weren't around, Green Bay was the team I cheered for. So, they too are my team. It's just that if the buildings burning down and I can only save one, I'm saving the Browns.

To help illustrate my point and prove that I have too much time on my hands I've made a list of NFL teams. The order is not about talent. It's not about draft order. This is more like a personal pecking order of teams. Simply put, it's the order in which I like the teams.

The middle, which I put from 3-24, is very murky for me. I suffer from some indifference towards those teams. My opinion of those teams can change based on how they can effect my teams or even the teams I truly dislike. Here's the list:

1. Cleveland Browns

2. Green Bay Packers

3. New Orleans Saints

4. Miami Dolphins

5. Indianapolis Colts

6. Seattle Seahawks

7. Houston Texans

8. St. Louis Rams

9. Tennessee Titans

10. Kansas City Chiefs

11. Philadelphia Eagles

12. Arizona Cardinals

13. San Diego Chargers

14. Atlanta Falcons

15. New York Giants

16. Jacksonville Jaguars

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

18. San Francisco 49ers

19. Carolina Panthers

20. Detroit Lions

21. Washington Redskins

22. Buffalo Bills

23. Minnesota Vikings

24. New York Jets

25. Chicago Bears

26. Oakland Raiders

27. Dallas Cowboys

28. New England Patriots

29. Denver Broncos

30. Cincinnati Bengals

31. Baltimore Ravens

32. Pittsburgh Steelers

Ok, Here's my Super Bowl Prediction

Green Bay(-2.5) 27
Pittsburgb 25

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael.

National Championship

Sorry about not keeping up to date on the picks. I have been busy the past few weeks.

Tonight, I think Oregon will win and I'll leave the points.

Thanks for reading.

-Michael

Sugar Bowl

I think the Sugar Bowl will be a back and forth game. My prediction is that Ohio State will cover.

Orange Bowl

Sorry about not posting picks for the games on New Year's Day. I didn't have my usual facilities, so it wasn't really possible.

Tonight's Orange Bowl is an interesting match-up. Virginia Tech is definitely an underdog and deserve to be so. I agree that Stanford will win, but I think Virginia Tech will keep it close. I don't think it'll be exactly nip and tuck, but I think somehow Virginia will have a chance to win the game on its final possession.

Orange Bowl: Stanford(-4) vs Virginia Tech
Winner: Virginia Tech

Thanks for reading and please comment.

-Michael

Bowl Games 12/26-12/31

I've not been doing very well with these picks. In fact, if you are a betting man or woman, the only way you'd be ahead is if you haven't listened to me so far. However, I'm going to stick to it.

The Bowl Season has been pretty lame so far. So many blow-outs. But now we are getting to some better match-ups and hopefully there will some more exciting games.

Little Caesars Bowl: Toledo(pick 'em) vs. Florida International
Winner: Toledo

Independence Bowl: Air Force(-3) vs. Georgia Tech
Winner: Georgia Tech

Champ Sports Bowl: West Virginia(-2.5) vs. North Carolina State
Winner: West Virginia

Insight Bowl: Missouri(-3) vs. Iowa
Winner: Missouri

Military Bowl: Maryland(-7.5) vs East Carolina
Winner: East Carolina

Texas Bowl: Baylor(-1.5) vs. Illinois
Winner: Illinois

Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State(-5.5) vs. Arizona
Winner: Oklahoma State

Armed Forces Bowl: SMU(-7) vs. Army
Winner: SMU

Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State(pick 'em) vs. Syracuse
Winner: Kansas State

Music City Bowl: North Carolina(-2) vs. Tennessee
Winner: North Carolina

Holiday Bowl: Nebraska(-14) vs. Washington
Winner: Nebraska

Meineke Bowl: Clemson(-5.5) vs. South Florida
Winner: South Florida

Sun Bowl: Miami(FL)(-3) vs. Notre Dame
Winner: Miami(FL)

Liberty Bowl: Georgia(-6.5) vs UCF
Winner: Georgia

Chick-fil-A Bowl: South Carolina(-3) vs. Florida State
Winner: South Carolina

Thanks for reading

-Michael